Chinese New Year 2026 arrives on January 29, ushering in the Year of the Horse. For businesses that depend on Chinese manufacturing, this annual shutdown represents one of the most significant supply chain disruptions of the year. With just over five weeks until factories go dark, the window for action is closing fast.
This guide breaks down exactly what you need to know and do to keep your supply chain moving through the holiday period and beyond.
Key Dates for Chinese New Year 2026
Understanding the timeline is essential for planning. While the official public holiday runs January 28 through February 4, the actual impact on manufacturing extends far longer.
The Critical Timeline
January 15-20: Most factories begin winding down production as workers prepare for their journey home
January 28: Chinese New Year's Eve—most operations cease entirely
January 29: Chinese New Year Day (Year of the Horse begins)
January 28 - February 4: Official public holiday period
February 5-15: Factories gradually reopen with skeleton crews
February 15-28: Production ramps back up to normal capacity
The reality is that Chinese New Year creates a manufacturing gap of roughly four to six weeks. Shipments that don't leave China by mid-January likely won't depart until late February at the earliest.
Why 2026 Presents Unique Challenges
This year's Chinese New Year comes with additional complications that make early preparation even more critical.
Ongoing Red Sea Disruptions
The Red Sea shipping crisis continues to force vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to Asia-Europe transit times. This extended routing means your shipments need to leave even earlier to arrive on schedule. What used to be a 30-day journey from Shanghai to Rotterdam now takes 42-45 days.
Elevated Freight Rates
Container shipping rates remain above pre-pandemic levels. The combination of rerouting around Africa and pre-CNY demand surges will likely push spot rates higher in January. Locking in rates now could save significant costs compared to scrambling for capacity in the final weeks before the holiday.
Tariff Uncertainty
With tariffs on Chinese goods remaining elevated and potential policy changes on the horizon, many importers are front-loading inventory. This additional demand pressure makes securing shipping capacity even more competitive heading into CNY.
Your Pre-CNY Action Checklist
With just over five weeks remaining, here's exactly what you should be doing right now.
Week 1 (December 21-27): Confirm and Communicate
Contact every supplier immediately to confirm their exact shutdown dates. Don't assume—ask specifically:
What date will production stop?
What's the last day to place orders for pre-CNY shipment?
When do they expect to resume full production?
Will key personnel be available during the holiday for urgent communications?
Many factories have different schedules based on their workforce composition and location. Facilities in industrial zones near major cities often close earlier and reopen later as workers travel greater distances to reach their hometowns.
Week 2 (December 28 - January 3): Finalize Orders
Any orders you want shipped before CNY need to be finalized this week. This means:
Production orders confirmed and in progress
Payment terms arranged or deposits paid
Shipping bookings secured with your freight forwarder
Documentation requirements clarified
Waiting until the first week of January to place orders is too late for ocean freight. Even air freight becomes risky as carriers reduce capacity for the holiday period.
Week 3 (January 4-10): Ship What You Can
This is your last reliable window for ocean freight departures. Shipments leaving Chinese ports during this week should clear before the holiday shutdown affects port operations. Focus on:
Expediting production on critical items
Conducting quality inspections before goods leave the factory
Confirming booking details with carriers
Ensuring all export documentation is complete
Week 4 (January 11-17): Last Chance for Air
Ocean freight is essentially off the table for pre-CNY delivery at this point. If you have urgent needs, air freight is your only option, and capacity will be tight. Expect premium rates and limited availability.
Week 5+ (January 18 onwards): Wait It Out
By mid-January, you're in holiday mode whether you're ready or not. Focus shifts to planning your post-CNY strategy and managing inventory until production resumes.
Inventory Planning: How Much Buffer Do You Need?
The biggest question for most importers: how much inventory should you hold to bridge the CNY gap?
Calculate Your Coverage Window
At minimum, you need inventory to cover:
4-6 weeks of factory shutdown and ramp-up time
Your standard ocean freight transit time (add 10-14 days for Red Sea routing)
Port congestion delays that often occur when factories reopen simultaneously
A safety buffer for unexpected disruptions
For most businesses shipping from China via ocean freight, this means having inventory on hand through mid-to-late March. If your current stock runs out before then, you need to act now.
Prioritize Ruthlessly
You likely can't (and shouldn't) build buffer stock for your entire product line. Focus your pre-CNY ordering on:
Top revenue generators: Your bestsellers that drive the majority of sales
Long lead-time items: Products that take weeks to manufacture
Single-source products: Items you can only get from one supplier
Seasonal inventory: Spring products that need to arrive by March
For lower-volume or easily substitutable items, you may be better off accepting potential stockouts rather than tying up capital in excess inventory.
Shipping Strategies for the CNY Period
Ocean Freight: Book Now or Wait
If you haven't booked ocean freight for January departures, you may find limited options. Carriers reduce sailings during the holiday period, and the pre-CNY rush consumes available capacity quickly.
Your options:
Premium bookings: Pay higher rates for guaranteed space on remaining January sailings
Wait for February: Accept that your next shipment won't leave until late February and plan inventory accordingly
Consider LCL: If you don't need a full container, less-than-container-load shipping may have more availability
Air Freight: The Emergency Option
Air freight makes sense when the cost of a stockout exceeds the premium over ocean shipping. Calculate carefully:
What revenue would you lose from being out of stock?
What's the margin impact of air freight rates?
Can you pass any cost increase to customers?
For high-value, low-weight items, air freight during CNY often makes financial sense. For bulky, low-margin products, it rarely does.
Rail Freight: The Middle Ground
China-Europe rail services offer a compromise between ocean and air—faster than sea, cheaper than air. Transit times of 16-20 days can bridge the gap for European-bound cargo. Rail services typically continue through CNY, though with reduced frequency.
Post-CNY: Planning Your Recovery
Don't just survive CNY—use the downtime to prepare for a strong restart.
Expect Production Delays
When factories reopen, they face challenges:
Worker turnover: Some employees don't return after the holiday, requiring new hiring and training
Raw material shortages: Suppliers face the same staffing issues, creating upstream delays
Quality issues: New or rusty workers may produce more defects initially
Order backlogs: Everyone wants to be first in line, creating scheduling conflicts
Plan for production to take 20-30% longer than normal during February and early March.
Schedule Quality Inspections
With the post-CNY production rush and potential quality issues, don't skip inspections. Schedule pre-shipment inspections for your first post-holiday orders, even if you don't typically inspect every shipment. Catching problems before goods leave China is far cheaper than dealing with defective inventory.
Secure Early Shipping Space
The post-CNY shipping surge can be as challenging as the pre-holiday rush. Everyone's shipments are ready around the same time, creating a capacity crunch. Book your February and March shipping early to avoid scrambling for space.
Communication: Your Most Important Tool
Throughout the CNY period, clear communication makes everything easier.
With Your Suppliers
Confirm all details in writing, not just verbal agreements
Get mobile numbers for key contacts who may be reachable during the holiday
Establish expectations for post-CNY communication timing
Discuss your Q1 forecast so they can plan production capacity
With Your Freight Forwarder
Share your shipping schedule for January through March
Discuss contingency options if shipments are delayed
Confirm their operations schedule during the holiday period
Review customs documentation requirements to avoid clearance delays
With Your Customers
If CNY will affect your ability to fulfill orders, communicate proactively:
Update lead times on your website
Notify key accounts of potential delays
Consider promoting in-stock items to shift demand away from constrained products
The Bottom Line: Act Now
Chinese New Year 2026 is just over five weeks away. The businesses that navigate it successfully are those that prepare early, communicate clearly, and maintain flexibility when plans inevitably change.
If you're reading this and haven't started your CNY preparation, today is the day to begin. Contact your suppliers, review your inventory, and talk to your freight forwarder about your options.
The Year of the Horse is coming. Make sure your supply chain is ready to run with it.
Need help preparing your supply chain for Chinese New Year 2026? Contact Cubic today to discuss your shipping needs and secure capacity before it's too late.
