Hormuz Closure: How It's Raising Your Shipping Costs

On March 2, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic.3 Within hours, tanker traffic through the strait dropped to near zero. At least three tankers were struck, and over 150 ships anchored outside the strait rather than risk passage. Every major ocean carrier, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and COSCO, suspended transits immediately.

If you import goods into the US or Europe, this crisis is already hitting your bottom line. Here's what's happening, what it costs you, and what to do about it.

What Happened and Why It Matters to Importers

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. About 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it daily, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas.3 It's also a transit corridor for container ships moving between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Following US-Israeli military strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran retaliated by effectively shutting down the strait. Roughly 170 containerships with a combined capacity of around 450,000 TEU are currently trapped inside the strait with no clear exit date.3 That's 1.4% of the global container fleet, stuck.

For importers, this means three things: new surcharges on your invoices, longer transit times on rerouted shipments, and rising fuel costs that will ripple through every quote you receive this spring.

The Surcharges Already Hitting Your Invoices

Carriers moved fast. Within days of the closure, new surcharges went into effect:

• Hapag-Lloyd War Risk Surcharge (WRS): $1,500 per TEU for standard containers, $3,500 for reefer and special equipment. Effective March 2.1

• CMA CGM Emergency Conflict Surcharge (ECS): $2,000 per 20-ft dry container, $3,000 per 40-ft dry, $4,000 per reefer or special equipment.2

• Other carriers: Emergency surcharges in the range of $3,000 per forty-foot container for cargo to and from the Gulf and, in some cases, to and from the Red Sea.7

These surcharges are layered on top of existing Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS) and any Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) already in your contracts. If you're shipping to or from the Middle East, your per-container costs just jumped by $1,500 to $4,000 overnight.

Even if your shipments don't touch the Gulf directly, you'll feel the impact. Spot rates from China to the UAE have already risen 5% since mid-February, and rates on Asia-Europe lanes are climbing as capacity tightens.

Longer Routes, Longer Wait Times

With the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea both effectively closed to commercial shipping, carriers are routing everything around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This was already the norm for many Asia-Europe routes after the Red Sea crisis that began in late 2023, but the Hormuz closure has made the situation worse.

Here's what the Cape route adds:

• Transit time: Roughly 10 extra days compared to the Suez/Hormuz route.3

• Fuel costs: Approximately 30% higher per voyage due to the longer distance.3

• Capacity absorption: Cape diversions are absorbing around 2.5 million TEU of global container shipping capacity.5 That means fewer ships available for your bookings.

In January, carriers had just started returning to the Suez Canal after two years of Houthi-related disruptions. That optimism is gone. Industry analysts now say a large-scale return of container ships to either the Red Sea or Hormuz in 2026 is unlikely.5

Oil Prices Are Driving Up Everything

Brent crude jumped 13% in the days following the strikes, climbing toward $82 per barrel.4 Analysts are forecasting potential rises to $100 or higher if disruptions persist. That feeds directly into your shipping costs through bunker fuel surcharges, and it raises the cost of producing and packaging goods at origin.

The benchmark freight rate for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day.4 While that's a tanker metric, it signals the kind of cost pressure rippling across the entire maritime industry, including the container lines that move your goods.

What You Should Do Right Now

This situation is fluid, but waiting for clarity is not a strategy. Here's what smart importers are doing today:

1. Audit your current bookings

Contact your freight forwarder and ask specifically: which of my upcoming shipments transit the Gulf, the Red Sea, or use transhipment hubs in the Middle East (Jebel Ali, Salalah, King Abdullah Port)? Any shipment touching these areas will be delayed or rerouted. Get updated ETAs now.

2. Lock in rates where you can

Spot rates are volatile and climbing. If you have upcoming shipments on Asia-Europe or Asia-US routes, consider locking in contract rates before carriers announce further surcharges. Even ocean freight rates on lanes that don't directly touch the Middle East are rising due to capacity constraints.

3. Consider air freight for urgent goods

If you have time-sensitive inventory, air freight may be worth the premium. Air cargo rates are also rising due to the conflict,6 but the transit time savings can protect you from stockouts. Run the numbers on your highest-margin SKUs.

4. Review your cargo insurance

War risk insurance premiums are spiking. Some insurers have already pulled coverage for the Gulf region entirely.4 Talk to your cargo insurance provider and make sure your coverage hasn't been quietly reduced or excluded for war-related events. If you're shipping through affected areas, you may need a separate war risk policy.

5. Buffer your inventory

With 10+ extra days baked into most routes and no end to the crisis in sight, your supply chain buffer needs to grow. If you normally carry 30 days of inventory, consider pushing to 45 or 60. This is especially critical for businesses preparing for summer season inventory.

6. Watch your customs bond

If you've been following the customs bond crisis, layering a shipping disruption on top of bond capacity issues creates compounding risk. Make sure your customs brokerage is on top of any bond renewals or adjustments needed as your import values shift.

How Long Will This Last?

Nobody knows. The Red Sea disruptions that began in late 2023 were expected to last weeks and stretched into years. A military conflict of this scale adds even more uncertainty. The honest answer is that you should plan for months, not weeks.

The carriers who had just started re-entering the Suez Canal in early 2026 have pulled back entirely. That tells you everything about how the industry is reading the risk.

The Bottom Line

The Hormuz closure is not a distant geopolitical event. It's a cost increase that's already on your next freight invoice. The importers who will navigate this best are the ones who move now: auditing routes, locking rates, buffering inventory, and staying in close contact with their logistics partners.

At Cubic, we're actively rerouting shipments and monitoring surcharges across all carriers in real time. If you need help assessing how the Hormuz crisis affects your specific supply chain, reach out to our team for a free consultation.