Last Call for Holiday Inventory: Ocean vs. Air Freight

It's the second week of August. If your holiday inventory isn't already on the water, you're now making a decision under pressure: pay up for ocean freight that's stuck near this year's highs, or look seriously at air for the first time since spring. That second option is more reasonable than it's been all year, and most importers haven't noticed yet.

Here's what's actually happening on both sides of that decision, and how to run the math for your own SKUs before you book anything.

Ocean rates are holding near their 2026 highs

The August 1 general rate increases on the transpacific mostly stuck. China to US West Coast pricing pushed back above $7,000 per FEU, and carriers are still trying to add $2,000 to $3,000 more per container on top of that.1 On specific China gateways, Shanghai to Los Angeles is running around $5,894 per 40ft container and Shanghai to other West Coast ports closer to $6,484.2

That's before the peak season surcharge (PSS) carriers layer on separately, which typically adds another $200 to $800 per FEU on east-west lanes from July through October.3 Add it up and a container that cost $4,500 to move in the spring can easily land at $7,500 to $8,500 today, before local charges.

The one piece of good news: the latest round of GRIs isn't fully sticking. Volumes have softened enough that some importers are rolling bookings for a few days hoping rates ease, and carriers aren't getting the full increase they announced.2 Don't read that as rates coming down meaningfully before Q4. It means the market is choppy, not cheap.

Air freight quietly got cheaper

This is the part most importers are missing. Air cargo did not follow ocean up this year, it's actually eased. The Freightos Air Index, a global benchmark, is down 8% compared to where it sat at the end of June. On the China to US lane specifically, rates dropped another 2% in the most recent week to around $5.67 per kg.4

That's a real gap opening up between the two modes. Ocean peak season demand is a capacity story: not enough vessel space against too much cargo chasing it. Air cargo isn't seeing the same crunch, so its pricing has stayed closer to normal seasonal patterns instead of spiking with ocean.

The practical effect is that the usual multiple you use to compare modes, air typically running somewhere from 4x to 8x ocean's cost per unit, has compressed. When ocean is inflated and air is flat, that gap narrows, and for some product categories it narrows enough to change the answer.

The math that actually decides this

Don't compare freight cost. Compare landed cost per unit against what a stockout actually costs you in November and December. Air freight almost never wins on a pure per-container basis. It wins when you run the full picture:

• Value density: High-value, low-weight goods (electronics accessories, jewelry, apparel) absorb an air premium far more easily than bulky, low-value goods (furniture, large appliances). If your per-unit air surcharge is a small fraction of your retail price, it's rarely the deciding factor.

• Sell-through timing: A unit that sells in the first two weeks of a promotion is worth more in your warehouse on time than a unit that sells in week six. If a shipment is genuinely borderline for making Black Friday, the revenue you protect by having it on shelf often outweighs the freight delta.

• Stockout cost, not just missed sales: Factor in lost ad spend on out-of-stock listings, marketplace ranking penalties for sellers who go out of stock during peak traffic, and the cost of expedited replenishment later. These rarely make it into a freight comparison but they're real dollars.

• Partial air, partial ocean: You don't have to choose one mode for the whole order. Air-freighting the first 20-30% of a PO to cover the opening weeks of peak season while the rest moves by ocean freight behind it is a common way to protect the launch date without paying air rates on your full volume.

Run this at the SKU level, not the PO level. A single order often has both product mix, some worth air-freighting a portion of, some that should stay on the water no matter what.

What "last call" actually means on the calendar

Ocean transit from China to a US West Coast port currently runs roughly 3 to 4 weeks port to port, with East Coast routings closer to 5 to 6 weeks once you account for the extra transit or rail move inland.5 During peak season, book vessel space 4 to 6 weeks ahead of your cargo-ready date, not the 2 to 3 weeks that works in slower months. Wait until cargo is actually ready to book and you risk landing on a transshipment routing or a later sailing than you wanted.

Work backward from your actual need date, not from Black Friday itself. Retailers who want full assortment on shelf and in fulfillment centers before promotions start, with enough buffer for customs delays, port congestion, and inland trucking, are already treating early-to-mid August as the last comfortable ocean booking window for anything they want in hand well ahead of the holiday selling season. Miss that window and every week you wait narrows your options to faster, pricier service tiers.

A simple decision framework

Before you book anything this month, walk through this in order:

• 1. Confirm your real need date. Not Black Friday, the date the goods need to be sellable, including any prep, poly-bagging, or FBA/3PL receiving lead time on top of the port date.

• 2. Check if standard ocean still clears that date with buffer. If yes, book now. Rates aren't dropping meaningfully before Q4, and every week of delay adds risk, not savings.

• 3. If ocean is tight or already blown, price out air for the portion of the order that's time-critical. With the current rate gap, this is worth pricing even if you assumed it was off the table six months ago.

• 4. Get real numbers before you decide anything. Spot quotes on both modes change week to week right now. A quote from June or even early July is not a quote you can plan against today.

None of this is a call to panic-book everything by air. Most holiday inventory should still move by ocean, that's what the economics support for the majority of product categories. The point is narrower: this year, for the first time in months, the cost of checking is lower than the cost of assuming you already know the answer.

If you're trying to figure out which SKUs are actually worth moving by air this month, talk to us. We can run current ocean and air freight quotes side by side against your real need dates and tell you where the split actually pays off.