What the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Means for Your Shipping Costs

On May 14, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a two-day summit in Beijing with modest but meaningful trade agreements.1 The outcome matters for anyone who sources goods from China. The average U.S. tariff on Chinese imports still sits near 48%, down from triple-digit peaks but well above the 3.1% level in 2018. Yet the summit did produce a few concrete changes that affect your landed cost, your supplier relationships, and how you should think about Q3 inventory planning.

Here is what actually happened, what it means for importers, and what to do with your next shipment.

The Tariff Truce Gets Extended

The October 2025 tariff thaw between the two countries was the most significant de-escalation in the trade war since it began in 2018. At that summit in South Korea, Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods, and Xi backed away from choking off supplies of vital rare earths.2

The May 2026 meeting did not produce a formal treaty. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said after the summit that it had not yet been decided whether to extend the truce beyond its expiry later this year.3 But both sides signaled a willingness to maintain the current tariff levels rather than escalate. That matters because the alternative, a return to the 145% tariff peaks seen in 2025, would make many China-sourced products unviable for U.S. importers.

For now, the 48% average tariff rate is the baseline you should plan around. That rate is still high, but it is predictable, and predictability is worth something when you are building landed cost models and supplier quotes.

A New Board of Trade, With $30 Billion on the Table

The most concrete outcome was the announcement of a new U.S.-China Board of Trade to oversee tariff cuts on roughly $30 billion of goods.4 The idea, pushed by U.S. Trade Representative Greer, is to create a centralized mechanism where China commits to buying specific American products, and the U.S. agrees to corresponding tariff relief on non-sensitive goods.

The product categories being discussed are politically significant but commercially narrow: airplanes from Boeing, soybeans and beef from American farms, and energy products.1 If you import from China, this does not directly affect your tariff rate. But it does signal a longer-term institutional framework for managing the trade relationship, which reduces the risk of sudden tariff spikes.

The more relevant detail for importers is what the Board of Trade means for specific HTS codes. If your product category falls into the $30 billion bucket, you could see bilateral tariff reductions on a timeline negotiated through this mechanism. That is not a guarantee, but it is a signal worth watching if you are in agriculture-adjacent manufacturing, aviation components, or energy equipment.

Chinese Agricultural Purchases and Your Supplier Landscape

China agreed to purchase more than $10 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans and beef.4 U.S. soybean exports to China dropped 75% in 2025, so this is a meaningful reversal for American farmers. But what does it mean for an importer buying electronics, furniture, or textiles from China?

Indirectly, it matters. When China buys more American agricultural goods, it creates goodwill that stabilizes the broader trade relationship. A stable trade environment means Chinese suppliers are more willing to invest in capacity, negotiate longer-term contracts, and commit to delivery schedules. In 2025, many Chinese factories hedged their exposure to the U.S. market by diversifying into Europe and Southeast Asia. If they believe the U.S. market is staying open, they are more likely to prioritize American orders and offer competitive pricing.

China's share of U.S. trade has fallen from over 13% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2025, with Mexico and Canada now ranked as America's top two trading partners.5 If the truce holds and some tariff relief flows through the Board of Trade, that trend could partially reverse. For importers who have built supply chains in Vietnam or India as a China hedge, this is a moment to reassess whether your total landed cost still favors the alternative source.

Rare Earth Exports: The Hidden Variable

The October 2025 agreement included a Chinese commitment to maintain rare earth exports to the U.S. After the summit, Greer indicated there was willingness on both sides to extend that commitment past its original expiry.4

If you import electronics, electric vehicle components, medical devices, or anything with permanent magnets, this matters. Rare earths are not a direct shipping cost, but they are a direct supply chain risk. A disruption in Chinese rare earth exports would halt production lines regardless of how cheap your freight rate is. The extension of this commitment removes one layer of uncertainty from Q3 planning.

What the Section 122 Tariff Means for Your Budget

While the Beijing summit dominated headlines, a parallel legal development is just as important for your freight budget. On May 12, 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an administrative stay on a lower court ruling that had struck down Trump's 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.6

The practical effect: the 10% Section 122 surcharge remains in place for now, including for the three importers who had won relief the week before. Section 122 has a 150-day statutory cap, meaning it expires July 24, 2026, unless Congress extends it. A 24-state coalition is still challenging the tariff in court. The appeals process could take months.

For importers, this means the 10% baseline surcharge is still part of your landed cost calculation through at least late July. Do not assume it will disappear before your next shipment arrives. Build it into your Q3 budget. If it does get struck down permanently, that is upside. If it gets extended or increased toward the 15% statutory cap, you have already planned for it.

CBP Has Already Cleared $35 Billion in IEEPA Refunds

On a separate but related track, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has been processing refunds for tariffs struck down under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). As of May 2026, CBP had cleared more than $35.5 billion in refunds through its CAPE portal for over 8 million entries.7

If you paid IEEPA duties between early 2025 and February 2026 and have not filed a claim, this window is still open. The CAPE portal is operational, and refunds are being issued via ACH within 60 to 90 days of acceptance. If you are unsure whether your entries included IEEPA duties, check your ACE entry summaries for HTS subheadings 9903.01.XX and 9903.02.XX. That money is yours if you claim it.

What to Do With Your Next Three Shipments

Lock in Q3 rates before July 24

The Section 122 tariff uncertainty creates a clear deadline. If the tariff expires on July 24 and is not extended, your landed cost drops by 10% on all non-exempt goods. If it is extended or raised, your cost holds or rises. Either way, you need to know before you confirm July and August bookings. Talk to your forwarder now about how they are modeling the post-July 24 environment. If you can negotiate a contract rate that caps your exposure, that is worth pursuing.

Revisit your China vs. alternative sourcing math

If you shifted production to Vietnam, India, or Mexico to avoid China tariffs, run the numbers again with a 48% China tariff rate rather than the 145% worst-case scenario. Include freight costs, transit times, quality control overhead, and supplier reliability. For many product categories, the alternative source made sense at 145%. At 48%, China may be competitive again, especially if your Chinese suppliers are willing to negotiate on price to win back volume.

Watch the Board of Trade product list

The $30 billion Board of Trade framework will define which product categories get bilateral tariff relief. If your goods fall into agriculture-adjacent manufacturing, aviation components, energy equipment, or medical devices, monitor the HTS codes that get included. Early movers who can pivot their sourcing or product mix to take advantage of reduced rates will capture margin that competitors miss.

File your IEEPA refund claim if you have not already

This is free money for most importers who paid IEEPA duties. The CAPE portal is live, the process is automated, and CBP is processing claims. If your customs broker handled your entries, confirm whether they have filed on your behalf. If not, the claim is your responsibility.

Build a scenario plan for Q4

The Trump-Xi summit stabilized the relationship for now, but tariff policy remains deeply uncertain beyond mid-year. The Board of Trade is new and untested. The Section 122 appeals could go either way. Congress may or may not act. Build three scenarios into your Q4 plan: base case (48% China tariffs + 10% Section 122 hold), optimistic case (Board of Trade relief reduces some rates, Section 122 expires), and stress case (truce collapses, tariffs spike again). Each scenario should have a sourcing, inventory, and ocean freight strategy attached.

The Bottom Line

The May 2026 summit was not a trade breakthrough. It was a stabilization exercise, and that is actually more useful for most importers than a dramatic announcement. A stable, predictable 48% tariff rate lets you plan. An unpredictable 145% rate forces you to hedge everything and overpay for alternative sourcing.

The moves you should make now are operational, not political. Lock Q3 rates. File IEEPA refunds. Re-run your China sourcing math. Build Q4 scenarios. If you want help modeling how any of these tariff developments affect your specific product categories and trade lanes, get in touch with Cubic. We work with importers every day on exactly this kind of landed cost planning.