For importers, Q1 is the most challenging quarter of the year. Chinese New Year factory shutdowns collide with post-holiday inventory rebuilding. Shipping rates spike as everyone scrambles for capacity. And just when you think you're through the worst, the post-CNY production backlog creates a second wave of shipping congestion.
After helping hundreds of importers navigate this period, I've learned that the businesses who thrive in Q1 aren't necessarily the ones with the biggest budgets. They're the ones with the smartest strategies. Here's your playbook for making it through the first quarter of 2026 with your supply chain—and your sanity—intact.
What Makes Q1 2026 Different
Every year presents unique challenges, and 2026 is no exception. Understanding the specific dynamics at play will help you plan more effectively.
The CNY Timeline
Chinese New Year 2026 falls on January 29, bringing in the Year of the Horse. The official holiday runs through February 4, but as any experienced importer knows, the real impact extends far longer. Most factories begin winding down by mid-January as workers start their journeys home. Full production typically doesn't resume until late February, creating a four-to-six week gap in manufacturing output.
If you haven't already secured your pre-CNY shipments, the window is essentially closed for ocean freight. Our complete CNY 2026 guide covers the specific deadlines and preparation steps in detail.
Ongoing Red Sea Disruptions
The rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope continues to add 10-14 days to Asia-Europe transit times and creates ripple effects across global shipping networks. This extended routing means vessels are tied up longer, effectively reducing available capacity even as new ships enter service.
For importers shipping to North America, the impact is less direct but still present. Carrier schedules and vessel availability are affected by global network disruptions, and any container shortage on one trade lane eventually affects others.
Rate Environment
Container rates entering 2026 remain elevated compared to historical norms, though below the extreme peaks of recent disruption periods. According to industry data, long-term contract rates on major trade lanes are showing some stabilization, but spot rates continue to fluctuate based on demand surges and capacity availability.
The combination of CNY shipping rush, Red Sea rerouting, and persistent demand means Q1 rates will likely remain under upward pressure through February.
The Three Phases of Q1
To plan effectively, think of Q1 as three distinct phases, each with different priorities and challenges.
Phase 1: Pre-CNY Rush (January 1-15)
This is your last window to get goods out of China before the holiday shutdown. Every day counts.
Priorities:
Confirm all outstanding orders are in production and on track
Secure shipping bookings for any goods not yet confirmed
Expedite quality inspections—don't let goods sit waiting for approval
Complete export documentation before factories go dark
Verify your suppliers' exact shutdown dates (they vary significantly)
Common mistakes to avoid:
Assuming there's still time to place new orders
Waiting for "perfect" production to ship—good enough now beats perfect in March
Neglecting to get emergency contact information from suppliers
Phase 2: The Quiet Period (January 16 - February 15)
With Chinese manufacturing offline, the focus shifts to managing what you have and preparing for restart.
Priorities:
Monitor in-transit shipments closely for any delays
Finalize post-CNY order quantities based on current inventory and demand forecasts
Negotiate Q2 shipping contracts while carriers are less pressured
Use downtime to review and optimize your customs processes
Plan warehouse receiving schedules for the coming surge
Strategic opportunity: This is actually an excellent time to negotiate longer-term carrier contracts. With shipping volumes temporarily reduced, you may find carriers more willing to offer competitive rates for committed volume.
Phase 3: Post-CNY Surge (February 16 - March 31)
Factories reopen, but challenges continue. Everyone's first orders compete for limited production slots and shipping capacity.
Priorities:
Be first in line with confirmed orders and deposits ready
Book shipping capacity early—don't wait for goods to be ready
Schedule quality inspections proactively (inspectors are stretched thin)
Expect and plan for 20-30% longer production times
Monitor for quality issues as factories ramp back up
Reality check: Post-CNY is often more chaotic than pre-CNY. Factories are dealing with worker turnover, new hires, and months of backed-up orders. Patience and flexibility will serve you better than frustration.
Rate Management Strategies
Freight rates in Q1 are notoriously volatile. Here's how to manage costs without sacrificing reliability.
Lock In What You Can
If you have predictable shipping volumes, secure committed capacity through contracts. Data shows carriers offering discounts of 15-28% for longer-term commitments versus spot rates on major trade lanes. The stability may be worth more than chasing the absolute lowest rate.
Work with your freight forwarder to structure contracts that provide rate certainty for your base volume while allowing flexibility for surges.
Accept Strategic Premiums
Not all shipments are created equal. For truly urgent goods—fast-selling items, products with limited shelf life, or goods tied to specific launch dates—paying premium rates may be the right business decision.
The question isn't "what's the cheapest option?" but "what's the cost of not having this product available?" If a stockout costs you $50,000 in lost sales, paying an extra $3,000 for air freight is an easy call.
Consider Mode Alternatives
Ocean freight isn't the only option. For certain cargo types and destinations, alternatives may offer better value during Q1 congestion:
Air freight: Makes sense for high-value, low-weight products where the speed premium is justified
Sea-air combinations: Ship ocean to a hub port, then air for final leg—faster than pure ocean, cheaper than pure air
Rail services: China-Europe rail offers 16-20 day transit times at rates between ocean and air
The right mix depends on your specific products, margins, and timing requirements.
Capacity Planning: Getting Space When Everyone Wants It
Capacity constraints are the defining challenge of Q1. Here's how to improve your odds of getting space when you need it.
Book Early, Confirm Often
In tight markets, bookings made weeks in advance get priority over last-minute requests. Build your shipping schedule based on production timelines, not the other way around. And don't assume a booking is guaranteed—confirm with your carrier or forwarder regularly as the ship date approaches.
Be Flexible on Timing
If you can accept a sailing one week earlier or later than your ideal date, you dramatically increase your chances of securing space. Build this flexibility into your inventory planning.
Consider Alternative Ports
The busiest origin ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo) face the worst congestion. If your suppliers can deliver to secondary ports, you may find more available capacity. Similarly, on the destination side, flexibility on which port receives your cargo can open up more routing options.
Maintain Multiple Carrier Relationships
Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Having relationships with multiple carriers—either directly or through a well-connected freight forwarder—gives you options when your primary carrier can't accommodate a shipment.
Inventory Management During the Gap
The CNY manufacturing gap requires careful inventory planning. Here's how to calculate what you need.
Calculate Your Coverage Window
For most importers shipping from China via ocean freight, you need inventory to cover:
4-6 weeks of factory shutdown and ramp-up
Transit time (add extra days for current routing disruptions)
Potential port congestion when factories reopen
A safety buffer for unexpected issues
For most businesses, this means having inventory through mid-to-late March. If your projections show stockouts before then, consider whether air freight or expedited ocean can fill the gap.
Prioritize Ruthlessly
You probably can't afford to build maximum buffer stock for every SKU. Focus your pre-CNY investment on:
Revenue drivers: Your top-selling products that generate the majority of sales
Long lead-time items: Products that take weeks to manufacture
Single-source products: Items only available from one supplier
Spring season inventory: Products with specific seasonal windows
For lower-priority items, you may choose to accept potential stockouts rather than tying up capital.
Documentation and Compliance
Q1 is not the time to discover documentation problems. Delays at customs compound shipping delays, turning a manageable situation into a crisis.
Pre-Flight Checklist
Before any shipment leaves origin, verify:
Commercial invoice matches packing list and actual cargo
HTS codes are accurate and optimized (incorrect classification means wrong duties or delays)
All required certificates and permits are in order
Country of origin documentation is complete and accurate
ISF Filing
With CBP enforcement tightening, late or inaccurate Importer Security Filings (ISF) result in delays and penalties. Ensure your customs broker receives complete information at least 48 hours before vessel departure—not the minimum 24 hours. This buffer protects you if there are questions or corrections needed.
UFLPA Compliance
If any of your products contain cotton, polysilicon, or tomatoes—or have any connection to China's Xinjiang region—ensure your supply chain documentation is airtight. Detentions have increased significantly, and proving compliance requires documentation that traces materials back to their origin.
Working With Your Freight Forwarder
Q1 is when the quality of your freight forwarding partnership really shows. Here's how to get the most from the relationship.
Share Your Full Picture
Don't just send shipment-by-shipment requests. Share your complete Q1 shipping calendar, including tentative dates. This allows your forwarder to plan capacity strategically and advocate for your space with carriers.
Communicate Early About Problems
If production is delayed or quantities are changing, tell your forwarder immediately. The earlier they know, the more options they have to adjust bookings, combine shipments, or find alternative solutions.
Ask for Market Intelligence
A good forwarder should be able to tell you what they're seeing in the market: which routes are tightest, where rates are heading, which carriers are performing best. This intelligence helps you make better decisions.
Plan Joint Review Sessions
Schedule a call with your forwarder in early January to review your Q1 plan and another in late February to assess post-CNY conditions. These strategic conversations prevent surprises and keep everyone aligned.
Your Q1 Action Checklist
Here's a week-by-week summary of priorities:
Week of December 30:
Finalize pre-CNY shipping schedule
Confirm all bookings with carriers
Verify supplier shutdown dates
Review Q1 inventory projections
Week of January 6:
Expedite any delayed production
Complete quality inspections for ready goods
Ensure all documentation is prepared
Get emergency supplier contacts
Week of January 13:
Ship everything possible—last chance for ocean freight
Finalize post-CNY order quantities
Begin Q2 contract negotiations
Week of January 20 - February 10 (CNY Period):
Monitor in-transit shipments
Complete contract negotiations
Prepare post-CNY orders and payment
Plan warehouse receiving schedules
Week of February 17:
Confirm factory reopening and production restart
Submit post-CNY orders with deposits
Book shipping capacity for March
March:
Monitor production quality closely
Schedule pre-shipment inspections
Adjust Q2 plans based on Q1 learnings
The Bottom Line
Q1 is challenging, but it's also predictable. The same patterns repeat every year: the pre-CNY rush, the quiet period, the post-holiday chaos. The businesses that succeed are those that prepare in advance, stay flexible when conditions change, and maintain strong partnerships with their logistics providers.
Don't wait for problems to force your hand. The steps you take now—securing capacity, building inventory buffers, aligning with your forwarder—will determine whether Q1 is a period of stress or a competitive advantage.
Your competitors are preparing right now. Are you?
Need help navigating Q1 2026? Contact Cubic to discuss your shipping strategy and secure capacity for the months ahead.
