For the first time in two years, major container ships are transiting the Suez Canal again. In late December 2025, Maersk sent its first vessel through the Red Sea since the Houthi attacks began in late 2023. CMA CGM followed with plans for regular India-to-US services via Suez starting this month. After 24 months of rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, the global shipping industry is cautiously testing whether the shortest route between Asia and Europe is safe to use once more.
For importers, this development could reshape your 2026 shipping strategy. Transit times, freight rates, and carrier reliability are all in flux. Here's what you need to know and how to prepare.
What's Actually Happening
The shift back to Suez isn't a sudden reopening. It's a gradual, cautious return by carriers who are testing the waters while closely monitoring security conditions.
The Timeline So Far
In November 2023, Houthi rebels in Yemen began attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, citing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. By December 2023, all major container lines had rerouted their fleets around the Cape of Good Hope. The Suez Canal, which normally handles 12-15% of global trade and up to 30% of container traffic, saw volumes plummet by roughly 60%.
The diversions added 10-14 days to Asia-Europe transit times and absorbed an estimated 6% of global fleet capacity just to maintain existing service levels. Egypt's canal toll revenues dropped from a record $10.25 billion in 2023 to around $4.2 billion in 2024.
Then, in mid-December 2025, things started to change. Maersk's Singapore-flagged vessel Maersk Sebarok completed the first transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea by a major carrier since the attacks began. The voyage went without incident.
Where Carriers Stand Now
Different shipping lines are taking different approaches:
CMA CGM: Committing to regular India-Mediterranean service via Suez starting in January 2026, with a full return to Suez-based routing planned for Q2 2026
Maersk: Taking a stepwise approach with a limited number of additional trans-Suez sailings, not yet committing to a wider network change
Hapag-Lloyd: Remaining cautious, monitoring conditions before making route changes
Ocean Network Express (ONE): Planning to launch a new Red Sea-China service on January 15
The message from carriers is clear: they're optimistic but not rushing. As Maersk stated, they are not yet considering a wider East-West network change back to the trans-Suez corridor. Full normalization, according to shipping analysts, is likely a 2026 story that unfolds over quarters rather than weeks.
How This Will Impact Freight Rates
The potential return to Suez routing has significant implications for container shipping costs. Understanding these dynamics will help you negotiate better rates and plan your budget.
The Capacity Release Effect
The Cape of Good Hope diversion absorbed roughly 6% of global container shipping capacity. That's capacity that was consumed simply by longer sailing distances, not by carrying more cargo. When ships return to the shorter Suez route, that capacity gets released back into the market.
Industry estimates suggest more than two million TEU of container capacity could become available as the Suez reopens fully. In a market already facing oversupply from a wave of new vessel deliveries, this additional capacity will put significant downward pressure on freight rates.
What Rate Forecasts Show
Even before the recent developments, analysts were predicting lower rates in 2026:
Asia to US West Coast: Forecasts suggest 40-foot container rates could fall to $2,200-3,200, down 30-35% from 2025 averages
Asia to Europe: Spot rates are already down 41% year-over-year, with long-term rates down 24%
Industry benchmark: The Drewry World Container Index has dropped to around $2,000 per 40-foot container, down from nearly $4,000 at the start of 2025
The global container fleet is expected to grow by 5% in 2026 through new vessel deliveries, while demand growth projections range from 2.5% to 3.5%. This supply-demand imbalance was already pointing toward lower rates before the Suez factor entered the equation.
But Volatility Remains
Don't expect smooth, predictable pricing. Analysts warn that sudden shocks could push rates dramatically higher in short periods. A scenario combining rapid Suez reopening with unexpected demand surges could see rates spike from $2,200 to $6,500 or even $9,500 per container in a matter of weeks.
Carriers have become adept at managing effective supply through blank sailings and slow steaming, allowing them to react quickly to market changes. The days of stable, predictable pricing may not return in 2026.
Transit Time Implications
Beyond rates, the Suez reopening affects how long your shipments take to arrive.
Current vs. Historical Transit Times
The Cape routing added significant time to key trade lanes:
Shanghai to Rotterdam: Previously 30 days via Suez, increased to 42-45 days via Cape
Asia to Mediterranean: Added 10-14 days compared to Suez routing
Asia to US East Coast (via Suez): This route was particularly affected, pushing more cargo toward West Coast ports
As carriers return to Suez, transit times on affected routes will normalize. For importers serving European markets or using East Coast ports, this could mean goods arriving nearly two weeks faster than current schedules.
The Transition Period Challenge
During the transition back to Suez, schedule reliability may actually decrease temporarily. Vessels arriving earlier than expected could trigger port congestion at European terminals. Carriers will adjust sailing schedules, potentially blanking some sailings to manage the shift. Some shipments may experience delays as networks reconfigure.
Plan for some schedule unpredictability in Q1 and Q2 2026, even as the overall trend moves toward faster transits.
What This Means for Your 2026 Strategy
Given these developments, how should importers adjust their approach?
Rate Negotiation Opportunities
If you're negotiating ocean freight contracts for 2026, you have leverage. The combination of fleet overcapacity, potential Suez reopening, and uncertain demand creates a buyer's market. Consider:
Locking in rates now: Long-term contract rates have stabilized and may offer good value compared to potential spot market volatility
Building in flexibility: Negotiate contracts that allow you to benefit if spot rates drop significantly below your contracted rates
Volume commitments: Carriers are offering discounts of 15-28% for committed volume versus spot rates. If you have predictable shipping needs, this certainty has value
Work with your freight forwarder to understand the rate environment and structure contracts that balance cost savings with flexibility.
Inventory Planning Adjustments
Faster transit times change inventory calculations. If your goods are arriving 10-14 days sooner, you may be able to:
Reduce safety stock levels for European-bound or East Coast shipments
Order closer to when you need goods rather than building large buffers
Free up working capital previously tied up in extended pipeline inventory
Don't rush to cut inventory immediately. Wait until your carriers confirm route changes and you see consistent transit times before adjusting reorder points.
Port and Routing Decisions
The Suez reopening could shift optimal routing for US importers. When the canal was closed, West Coast ports gained volume as shippers avoided the longer all-water routes to the East Coast. As Suez reopens:
East Coast ports become more competitive for Asia-origin cargo, especially for distribution to eastern markets
Transit time differentials narrow between West Coast and East Coast options
Total landed cost calculations may favor different ports than during the Cape routing period
Review your port strategy and run updated cost comparisons once Suez routing becomes more established.
Risks and Uncertainties
While the trend appears positive, several factors could disrupt the return to Suez.
Security Remains Uncertain
The Houthi attacks paused rather than ended. The ceasefire in Gaza has reduced tensions, but the situation remains fragile. Carriers are proceeding cautiously precisely because security isn't guaranteed long-term.
If attacks resume, carriers would quickly reroute back to the Cape, potentially causing more disruption than the original shift. The industry has learned it can operate via the Cape route, so the threshold for abandoning Suez again is lower than it was in 2023.
Insurance Costs Haven't Normalized
War risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transits remain elevated. This added cost reduces the financial benefit of the shorter route, especially when combined with lower fuel prices that have reduced the cost penalty of the longer Cape journey.
For the Suez route to fully return, insurance markets need to gain confidence that the risk profile has genuinely improved. This could take months of incident-free transits.
Port Congestion Risk
European ports, particularly Rotterdam and other major terminals, could face congestion as ships arrive on faster schedules than ports are staffed to handle. Container backlogs at destination ports can cause delays that offset the transit time savings of the shorter route.
Monitor port conditions at your destination terminals as Suez traffic increases.
Action Items for Q1 2026
Based on current developments, here's what you should do now:
Immediate Actions
Talk to your freight forwarder about how they're monitoring the Suez situation and what route options they can offer
Review your rate contracts for any clauses related to route changes or surcharges that might be affected
Identify shipments most impacted by the current Cape routing. These are your candidates for early Suez switching if rates and reliability support it
Over the Next 30-60 Days
Run updated total cost analyses comparing your current routing to potential Suez-based alternatives
Negotiate 2026 contract rates with knowledge of the capacity situation, but build in flexibility for volatility
Prepare inventory systems for potential lead time reductions on affected lanes
Ongoing Monitoring
Track carrier announcements about route changes and service schedules
Monitor security developments in the Red Sea region
Watch spot rate trends as an indicator of where the market is heading
The Bottom Line
The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is one of the most significant developments in ocean shipping for 2026. If it proceeds as carriers hope, importers could see lower freight rates, faster transit times, and improved schedule reliability on key trade lanes.
But this is a transition that will unfold over months, not days. Security risks remain, carriers are moving cautiously, and the market will likely experience volatility as supply and demand dynamics shift.
The businesses that benefit most will be those that stay informed, maintain flexibility in their logistics strategy, and work with partners who understand the evolving situation. The opportunity to reduce shipping costs and improve supply chain performance is real. Capturing it requires attention to how the Suez story develops throughout the year.
Need help navigating the changing freight landscape? Contact Cubic to discuss how the Suez developments might affect your shipping strategy and rates.
